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1.
medrxiv; 2024.
Preprint in English | medRxiv | ID: ppzbmed-10.1101.2024.02.17.24302708

ABSTRACT

Only a third of TB cases in Nigeria in 2020 were diagnosed and notified, in part due to low detection and underreporting from the private health sector. Using a standardized patient (SP) survey approach, we assessed how management of presumptive TB in the private sector aligns with national guidelines and whether this differed from a study conducted before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thirteen standardized patients presented a presumptive TB case to 511 private providers in urban areas of Lagos and Kano states in May and June 2021. Private provider case management was compared with national guidelines divided into three main steps: SP questioned about cough duration; sputum collection attempted for TB testing; and non-prescription of anti-TB medications, antibiotics, and steroids. SP visits conducted in May-June 2021 were directly compared to SP visits conducted in the same areas in June-July 2019. Overall, only 145 of 511 (28%, 95% CI: 24.5-32.5%) interactions were correctly managed according to Nigerian guidelines, as few providers completed all three necessary steps. Providers in 71% of visits asked about cough duration (362 of 511, 95% CI: 66.7-74.7%), 35% tested or recommended a sputum test (181 of 511, 95% CI: 31.3-39.8%), and 79% avoided prescribing or dispensing unnecessary medications (406 of 511, 95% CI: 75.6-82.8%). COVID-19 related questions were asked in only 2.4% (12 of 511, 95% CI: 1.3-4.2%) of visits. During the COVID-19 pandemic, few providers completed all steps of the national guidelines. Providers performed better on individual steps, particularly asking about symptoms and avoiding prescription of harmful medications. Comparing visits conducted before and during the COVID-19 pandemic showed that COVID-19 did not significantly change the quality of TB care. Key MessagesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSO_LILess than half of new TB cases in Nigeria are diagnosed and notified. As most initial health care seeking for TB in Nigeria occurs in the private sector, increasing the quality of TB care in the private sector is of great importance. C_LIO_LICOVID-19 may have put further stressors on TB care quality due to changes in care seeking behavior, stigma against COVID-19, and disproportionate attention at the health system level on pandemic control. C_LIO_LIThis study explored whether private providers practices are in alignment with national standards for TB screening in Nigeria, how these practices have changed following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and what factors are associated with providers that deliver clinically correct TB screening services. C_LI What this study addsO_LIFewer than one-third of the SP visits conducted in this study were correctly managed according to the Nigerian National TB and Leprosy Control Program guidelines. C_LIO_LIClinical correctness of TB care in the private sector of urban Nigeria has not been majorly affected by COVID-19 according to our study results. C_LIO_LIOur results indicate that very little observed attention was paid to COVID-19 in this sample of private facilities. C_LI How this study might affect research, practice or policyO_LIIncreased efforts to engage and support private providers, and implementing solutions such as working with drug shop proprietors to make referring for testing a standard part of their practice may help reduce the testing bottleneck at drug shops. C_LIO_LIAlthough Nigeria has maintained pre-pandemic levels of TB notification, it is important to establish high-quality screening by all providers to find the missing patients with TB and close the gap in TB notification. C_LI


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Tuberculosis, Meningeal , Leprosy , Tuberculosis
2.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 17(4): e0011238, 2023 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20237352

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Leprosy reactions (LRs) are inflammatory responses observed in 30%-50% of people with leprosy. First-line treatment is glucocorticoids (GCs), often administered at high doses with prolonged courses, resulting in high morbi-mortality. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunomodulating agent used to treat inflammatory diseases and has an excellent safety profile and worldwide availability. In this study, we describe the efficacy, GCs-sparing effect and safety of MTX in LRs. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective multicentric study in France consisting of leprosy patients receiving MTX for a reversal reaction (RR) and/or erythema nodosum leprosum (ENL) since 2016. The primary endpoint was the rate of good response (GR) defined as the complete disappearance of inflammatory cutaneous or neurological symptoms without recurrence during MTX treatment. The secondary endpoint was the GCs-sparing effect, safety and clinical relapse after MTX discontinuation. RESULTS: Our study included 13 patients with LRs (8 men, 5 women): 6 had ENL and 7 had RR. All patients had had at least one previous course of GCs and 2 previous treatment lines before starting MTX. Overall, 8/13 (61.5%) patients had GR, allowing for GCs-sparing and even GCs withdrawal in 6/11 (54.5%). No severe adverse effects were observed. Relapse after MTX discontinuation was substantial (42%): the median relapse time was 5.5 months (range 3-14) after stopping treatment. CONCLUSION: MTX seems to be an effective alternative treatment in LRs, allowing for GCs-sparing with a good safety profile. Furthermore, early introduction during LRs may lead to a better therapeutic response. However, its efficacy seems to suggest prolonged therapy to prevent recurrence.


Subject(s)
Erythema Nodosum , Leprosy, Lepromatous , Leprosy , Male , Humans , Female , Methotrexate/therapeutic use , Retrospective Studies , Erythema Nodosum/drug therapy , Erythema Nodosum/complications , Leprosy/drug therapy , Leprosy, Lepromatous/complications , Glucocorticoids , Recurrence
3.
Indian J Med Res ; 157(1): 5-10, 2023 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-20234582

Subject(s)
Leprosy , Humans
4.
J Pak Med Assoc ; 73(Suppl 2)(2): S170-S174, 2023 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2293827

ABSTRACT

Objectives: To analyse the effect of using digital health technology on leprosy control programmes. Method: The systematic review comprised search on PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, SAGE and ProQuest databases for interventional studies published in English language from 2013 to 2021 which used digital health technology for leprosy contact tracing, active leprosy detection, monitoring of multi-drug therapy and treatment management during the corona virus disease-2019 pandemic A standard risk of bias tool was used to evaluate bias in the studies, and the Joanna Briggs Institute protocol was used to assess the quality of the studies analysed. RESULTS: Of the 205 studies initially identified, 15(7.3%) were analysed in detail. Quasi-experimental studies had a low risk of bias compared to the rest. The e-leprosy framework was being used along with applications based on smartphones and artificial intelligence Digital health technology was found to be practical, accessible and effective in leprosy control programmes. CONCLUSIONS: Studies reported favourable findings regarding the use of digital health technology in services related to leprosy patients.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Leprosy , Humans , Pandemics , Artificial Intelligence , Leprosy/drug therapy , Technology
5.
PLoS One ; 18(2): e0276508, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2258638

ABSTRACT

Leprosy, also known as Hansen's, is one of the listed neglected tropical diseases as a major health problem global. Treatment is one of the main alternatives, however, the scarcity of medication and its poor distribution are important factors that have driven the spread of the disease, leading to irreversible and multi-resistant complications. This paper uses a distribution methodology to optimize medication administration, taking into account the most relevant attributes for the epidemiological profile of patients and the deficit in treatment via Polychemotherapy. Multi-criteria Decision Methods were applied based on AHP-Electre model in a database with information from patients in the state of Para between 2015 and 2020. The results pointed out that 84% of individuals did not receive any treatment and, among these, the method obtained a gain in the distribution of 68% in patients with positive diagnosis for leprosy.


Subject(s)
Leprosy , Humans , Pharmaceutical Preparations , Leprosy/drug therapy , Leprosy/epidemiology , Leprosy/diagnosis , Drug Therapy, Combination , Data Management , Databases, Factual
6.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 17(2): e0011138, 2023 02.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2249516

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: In Nepal, the burden of post kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL) is not known since there is no active case detection of PKDL by the national programme. PKDL patients could pose a challenge to sustain visceral leishmaniasis (VL) elimination. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of PKDL and assess PKDL patients' knowledge on VL and PKDL, and stigma associated with PKDL. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Household surveys were conducted in 98 VL endemic villages of five districts that reported the highest number of VL cases within 2018-2021. A total of 6,821 households with 40373 individuals were screened for PKDL. Cases with skin lesions were referred to hospitals and examined by dermatologists. Suspected PKDL cases were tested with rK39 and smear microscopy from skin lesions. An integrated diagnostic approach was implemented in two hospitals with a focus on management of leprosy cases where cases with non-leprosy skin lesions were tested for PKDL with rK39. Confirmed PKDL patients were interviewed to assess knowledge and stigma associated with PKDL, using explanatory model interview catalogue (EMIC) with maximum score of 36. Among 147 cases with skin lesions in the survey, 9 (6.12%) were confirmed as PKDL by dermatologists at the hospital. The prevalence of PKDL was 2.23 per 10,000 population. Among these 9 PKDL cases, 5 had a past history of VL and 4 did not. PKDL cases without a past history of VL were detected among the "new foci", Surkhet but none in Palpa. None of the cases negative for leprosy were positive for PKDL. There was very limited knowledge of PKDL and VL among PKDL cases. PKDL patients suffered to some degree from social and psychological stigma (mean ± s.d. score = 17.89 ± 12.84). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Strengthening the programme in PKDL case detection and management would probably contribute to sustenance of VL elimination. Awareness raising activities to promote knowledge and reduce social stigma should be conducted in VL endemic areas.


Subject(s)
Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous , Leishmaniasis, Visceral , Leprosy , Humans , Leishmaniasis, Visceral/epidemiology , Prevalence , Nepal/epidemiology , Leishmaniasis, Cutaneous/epidemiology , Leprosy/epidemiology , India/epidemiology
7.
Int J Dermatol ; 62(4): 547-557, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2230106

ABSTRACT

CONTEXT: The most reported viral co-infections in leprosy are human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), human T-cell lymphotropic virus (HTLV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and SARS-CoV-2. In co-infections, the burden of an agent can be increased or decreased by the presence of others. To address this issue, we need to fully understand their prevalence, risk factors, immunology, clinical manifestations, and treatment. The purpose of this scoping review is to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the most reported viral co-infections in leprosy to inform clinicians and guide future research. METHODS: The authors conducted a literature search of five databases for articles on each of the aforementioned co-infections published prior to October 2022. Two independent reviewers conducted the selection process and identified 53 papers meeting the study inclusion criteria. The data extraction process and evidence synthesis were conducted by one reviewer and double-checked by a second one, consistent with best practice recommendations for scoping reviews. RESULTS: For all assessed viruses, most studies reported prevalence rates in leprosy patients higher than the general population. Studies found that HTLV, HBV, and HCV chronic infections were highest in multibacillary leprosy, whereas HIV was mostly found in paucibacillary leprosy, and SARS-Cov-2 affected leprosy subtypes equally. Overall, co-infections were also associated with higher rates of leprosy reactions, except for COVID-19. Forty-six percent of the studies discussed issues related to treatment, which led to favorable outcomes for the most part. CONCLUSIONS: This review summarizes the existing literature on viral co-infections in leprosy patients, generating valuable insights and recommending areas for future research.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coinfection , HIV Infections , HTLV-I Infections , Hepatitis B , Hepatitis C , Leprosy , Humans , Hepatitis B/epidemiology , HTLV-I Infections/complications , HTLV-I Infections/epidemiology , Coinfection/complications , COVID-19/complications , COVID-19/epidemiology , SARS-CoV-2 , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis B virus , Leprosy/complications , Leprosy/epidemiology , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Prevalence
9.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 16(6): e0010476, 2022 06.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1957097

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Leprosy reactions, Type-1 and erythema nodosum leprosum, are immune-mediated complications of leprosy, which play a significant role in the morbidity associated with the disease. A considerable amount of literature has been published on the impact of leprosy in general but few studies focus specifically on leprosy reactions. This study aimed to investigate the impact of leprosy reactions on physical, psychological, and social aspects of the lives of people affected by analysing their life experiences and perspectives about leprosy reactions. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This qualitative study involved people affected by leprosy reactions and their family members in two leprosy endemic countries. The data were collected through 66 interviews and 9 focus group discussions (4-6 participants each) in Surabaya, Indonesia, and Purulia, India. Content analysis and conversational analysis were performed. This study found that both types of leprosy reactions were perceived as an unpredictable and painful condition. Leprosy reactions restricted physical activities of the participants, such as going to bathroom, sleeping, eating, and cooking. In the interviews, the respondents expressed a range of emotions and feelings including confusion, sadness, anxiety, and anger. Some recounted that they felt stigmatized and lost opportunities to socialise and earn money. Differences between the two settings were identified. The majority of Indonesian participants preferred to stay at home, and some concealed the diagnosis of leprosy, while most of the Indian respondents continued working up to the time of hospitalization. CONCLUSION: Leprosy reactions are a distressing complication of leprosy and adversely affect the lives of those affected. Individuals reported physical discomfort, distress, anxiety, stigma, and financial hardship and these negative impacts in the physical, psychological, and social spheres reinforced each other. These findings provide important information about a need for early detection and sustained commitment to follow-up care for people with a history of leprosy reactions. More research on new drugs for reactional episodes, tools to measure knowledge, attitude, and practice, and costing study on leprosy reactions treatment are needed. We recommend the development and testing of holistic strategies to improve the management of leprosy reactions.


Subject(s)
Erythema Nodosum , Leprosy , Erythema Nodosum/epidemiology , Family/psychology , Humans , Leprosy/epidemiology , Qualitative Research , Social Stigma
10.
Int J Dermatol ; 61(12): 1506-1510, 2022 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1916154

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The implications of COVID-19 co-infection in patients under treatment for Hansen's disease (HD, leprosy) remain uncertain. We aimed to describe clinical characteristics, treatments, and outcomes in patients with HD and COVID-19 in Brazil. METHODS: Cross-sectional study recruiting adult HD patients with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 from five HD treatment centers in Brazil between March 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021. At the time of this study, no patient had received COVID-19 vaccine. RESULTS: Of 1377 patients under treatment for HD, 70 (5.1%) were diagnosed with COVID-19. Of these, 41 (58.6%) had PCR-confirmed COVID-19, comprising 19 men and 22 women, aged 24-67 (median 45) years. HD was multibacillary in 39/41 patients. Eight patients ceased WHO Multi-Drug Therapy for HD, three for lack of drugs, two because of COVID-19, and three for other reasons. Of the 33 who continued treatment, 26 were on the standard regimen and seven an alternative regimen. Seventeen patients were receiving oral prednisone, including nine patients with type 1 reaction, four with type 2 reaction, three with neuritis, and one with rheumatologic disease. Twelve patients were hospitalized for COVID-19, and six patients died, of whom three had hypertension and one also had type 2 diabetes and obesity. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 and Hansen's disease co-infection did not appear to change the clinical picture of either disease in this cross-sectional study. The wider impact of the pandemic on persons affected by HD requires follow-up and monitoring.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Coinfection , Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 , Leprosy , Adult , Male , Humans , Female , Cross-Sectional Studies , COVID-19/epidemiology , Coinfection/epidemiology , Brazil/epidemiology , COVID-19 Vaccines , Leprosy/complications , Leprosy/diagnosis , Leprosy/drug therapy
13.
Rev. epidemiol. controle infecç ; 12(1): 7-12, jan.-mar. 2022. ilus
Article in English, Portuguese | WHO COVID, LILACS (Americas) | ID: covidwho-1897232

ABSTRACT

Background and objectives: Leprosy is an infectious disease in which early diagnosis is a decisive factor to prevent disability and disabilities. This study sought to analyze the panorama of leprosy between 2016 and 2021 in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and unveil the importance of medical education in the context of Neglected Tropical Diseases during the Sars-CoV-2 pandemic. Methods: Cross-sectional study using the State Center database of Health Surveillance of Rio Grande do Sul. In the data collection, were included leprosy data of individuals residents in the state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS), in the 2016 period 2021. The variables analyzed were confirmed leprosy cases, notified cases, the number of cases in terms of operational classifications of leprosy, the therapeutic scheme, and the number of cases according to the degrees of physical disability. Results: Over this period, 725 cases were confirmed as leprosy, 70% in the years 2016, 2017 and 2018. Of the total number of cases, 88% were Multibacillary form of the disease, 50% had some degree of disability at diagnosis time and 80% underwent the standard treatment regimen. Conclusion: There is a delay in leprosy diagnosis, and there is underdiagnosis of the disease in the state of Rio Grande do Sul: which highlights the need to reaffirm educational practices on mycobacteriosis.(AU)


Justificativa e objetivos: A hanseníase é uma doença infectocontagiosa na qual o diagnóstico precoce é fator decisivo para prevenir incapacidade e deficiências. O presente estudo buscou analisar o panorama da hanseníase entre os anos de 2016 e 2021 no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, desvelando a importância da educação médica no contexto das Doenças Tropicais Negligenciadas durante a pandemia da Sars-CoV-2. Métodos: Estudo transversal por meio da base de dados do Centro Estadual de Vigilância em Saúde do Rio Grande do Sul. Na coleta de dados, foram incluídos os dados de hanseníase em indivíduos residentes do estado do Rio Grande do Sul (RS), no período de 2016 a 2021. As variáveis analisadas foram os casos confirmados de hanseníase, os casos notificados, o número de casos quanto às classificações operacionais de hanseníase, o esquema terapêutico e o número de casos de acordo com os graus de incapacidade física. Resultados: No período analisado, foram confirmados 725 casos de hanseníase, sendo 70% nos anos de 2016, 2017 e 2018. Do número total de casos, 88% eram a forma multibacilar da doença, 50% apresentaram algum grau de incapacidade física no momento do diagnóstico e 80% realizaram o esquema terapêutico padrão. Conclusão: Existe atraso no diagnóstico de hanseníase e há subdiagnóstico da doença no estado do Rio Grande do Sul, o que evidencia a necessidade de reafirmação das práticas educacionais sobre a micobacteriose.(AU)


Justificación y objetivos: La lepra es una enfermedad infecciosa en la que el diagnóstico precoz es un factor decisivo para prevenir la incapacidad y las discapacidades. Este estudio buscó analizar el panorama de la lepra entre 2016 y 2021 en el estado de Rio Grande do Sul y develar la importancia de la educación médica en el contexto de las Enfermedades Tropicales Desatendidas durante la pandemia Sars-CoV-2. Métodos: Estudio transversal con datos del Centro Estatal de Vigilancia en Salud de Rio Grande do Sul. La recolección de datos incluyó datos sobre lepra en individuos residentes en el estado de Rio Grande do Sul (RS), de 2016 a 2021. Las variables analizadas fueron casos confirmados de lepra, casos notificados, el número de casos en términos de clasificaciones operativas de lepra, el esquema terapéutico y el número de casos según los grados de discapacidad física. Resultados: En el período analizado se confirmaron 725 casos de lepra, 70% en los años 2016, 2017 y 2018. Del total de casos, 88% fueron la forma multibacilar de la enfermedad, 50% tenían algún grado de discapacidad física en el momento del diagnóstico y el 80% realizó el régimen terapéutico padrón. Conclusiones: Hay un retraso en el diagnóstico de la lepra y hay un infradiagnóstico de la enfermedad en el estado de Rio Grande do Sul: lo que pone de relieve la necesidad de reafirmar las prácticas educativas sobre micobacteriosis.(AU)


Subject(s)
Humans , Education, Medical , Leprosy , Diagnostic Errors , Neglected Diseases , COVID-19 , Health Services Research
14.
15.
Int J Infect Dis ; 118: 44-51, 2022 May.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1838840

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to characterize the profile of patients diagnosed with leprosy relapse and understand the influence of different multidrug therapy (MDT) treatments and initial disease presentation. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients diagnosed with leprosy relapse at a referral center in Brazil from 2013 to 2018. We analyzed their clinico-epidemiologic characteristics, laboratory data, and bacilloscopic tests. Survival analysis was used to determine the time elapsed until relapse according to the previous treatment and clinical forms of the disease. RESULTS: A total of 126 cases of relapse were analyzed, which comprised 11.89% (126/1059) of the cases. The median time elapsed until a relapse was 10 years, and most patients had previously undergone 12 doses of MDT (40.48%; 51/126). Undergoing 24 doses of MDT was associated with a better prognosis regarding relapse over time compared with 6 or 12 doses of MDT therapy. Most cases of relapse were classified as multibacillary (96.03%; 121/126). CONCLUSION: The incidence of relapse was greater than observed in other studies. The high percentage of multibacillary patients who had negative bacillary indices demonstrated that the bacillary index cannot be considered to be an essential criterion for relapse, especially concerning making an early diagnosis.


Subject(s)
Leprostatic Agents , Leprosy , Brazil/epidemiology , Chronic Disease , Drug Therapy, Combination , Humans , Leprostatic Agents/therapeutic use , Leprosy/drug therapy , Recurrence , Referral and Consultation , Retrospective Studies
16.
Lancet ; 399(10335): 1588-1599, 2022 04 23.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1805372
17.
Front Cell Infect Microbiol ; 12: 815738, 2022.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1742205

ABSTRACT

Inflammatory disorders are associated with the activation of tryptophan (TRYP) catabolism via the kynurenine pathway (KP). Several reports have demonstrated the role of KP in the immunopathophysiology of both leprosy and coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19). The nervous system can be affected in infections caused by both Mycobacterium leprae and SARS-CoV-2, but the mechanisms involved in the peripheral neural damage induced by these infectious agents are not fully understood. In recent years KP has received greater attention due the importance of kynurenine metabolites in infectious diseases, immune dysfunction and nervous system disorders. In this review, we discuss how modulation of the KP may aid in controlling the damage to peripheral nerves and the effects of KP activation on neural damage during leprosy or COVID-19 individually and we speculate its role during co-infection.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Leprosy , Peripheral Nervous System Diseases , COVID-19/complications , Humans , Kynurenine/metabolism , Leprosy/complications , SARS-CoV-2 , Tryptophan/metabolism
18.
East. Mediterr. health j ; 28(2): 93-170, 2022-02.
Article in English | WHOIRIS | ID: gwh-352428

ABSTRACT

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal is the official health journal published by the Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office of the World Health Organization. It is a forum for the presentation and promotion of new policies and initiatives in health services; and for the exchange of ideas concepts epidemiological data research findings and other information with special reference to the Eastern Mediterranean Region. It addresses all members of the health profession medical and other health educational institutes interested NGOs WHO Collaborating Centres and individuals within and outside the Region


المجلة الصحية لشرق المتوسط هى المجلة الرسمية التى تصدرعن المكتب الاقليمى لشرق المتوسط بمنظمة الصحة العالمية. وهى منبر لتقديم السياسات والمبادرات الجديدة فى الصحة العامة والخدمات الصحية والترويج لها، و لتبادل الاراء و المفاهيم والمعطيات الوبائية ونتائج الابحاث وغير ذلك من المعلومات، و خاصة ما يتعلق منها باقليم شرق المتوسط. وهى موجهة الى كل اعضاء المهن الصحية، والكليات الطبية وسائر المعاهد التعليمية، و كذا المنظمات غير الحكومية المعنية، والمراكز المتعاونة مع منظمة الصحة العالمية والافراد المهتمين بالصحة فى الاقليم و خارجه


La Revue de Santé de la Méditerranée Orientale est une revue de santé officielle publiée par le Bureau régional de l’Organisation mondiale de la Santé pour la Méditerranée orientale. Elle offre une tribune pour la présentation et la promotion de nouvelles politiques et initiatives dans le domaine de la santé publique et des services de santé ainsi qu’à l’échange d’idées de concepts de données épidémiologiques de résultats de recherches et d’autres informations se rapportant plus particulièrement à la Région de la Méditerranée orientale. Elle s’adresse à tous les professionnels de la santé aux membres des instituts médicaux et autres instituts de formation médico-sanitaire aux ONG Centres collaborateurs de l’OMS et personnes concernés au sein et hors de la Région


Subject(s)
Leprosy , COVID-19 , Alcohol Drinking , Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive , Immunization , Emergency Service, Hospital , Cotton Fiber , Clinical Clerkship , Personal Protective Equipment , Neglected Diseases , Betacoronavirus , Disease Outbreaks
20.
Int J Environ Res Public Health ; 19(1)2021 12 31.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-1613755

ABSTRACT

This work aimed to apply the ARIMA model to predict the under-reporting of new Hansen's disease cases during the COVID-19 pandemic in Palmas, Tocantins, Brazil. This is an ecological time series study of Hansen's disease indicators in the city of Palmas between 2001 and 2020 using the autoregressive integrated moving averages method. Data from the Notifiable Injuries Information System and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were collected. A total of 7035 new reported cases of Hansen's disease were analyzed. The ARIMA model (4,0,3) presented the lowest values for the two tested information criteria and was the one that best fit the data, as AIC = 431.30 and BIC = 462.28, using a statistical significance level of 0.05 and showing the differences between the predicted values and those recorded in the notifications, indicating a large number of under-reporting of Hansen's disease new cases during the period from April to December 2020. The ARIMA model reported that 177% of new cases of Hansen's disease were not reported in Palmas during the period of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This study shows the need for the municipal control program to undertake immediate actions in terms of actively searching for cases and reducing their hidden prevalence.


Subject(s)
COVID-19 , Leprosy , Brazil/epidemiology , Humans , Leprosy/epidemiology , Models, Statistical , Pandemics , SARS-CoV-2
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